A Modern Exodus of Ethiopian Jews

April 11, 2012

For the most of us who have not heard of the Jews who lived for thousands of years in Ethiopia, much less of their recent exodus to Israel, here is a story starting around 950 BC that you may find intriguing.

My friend Eric Gandy and I attended the weekly meeting of the Stockholm International Rotary Club on March 15 to listen to Bengt Nilsson, a journalist and documentary film producer. His presentation centered on the relationship between the Queen of Sheba and King Solomon of Israel, and of the historical (or alleged) journey of the Ark of the Covenant from Israel to what is now Ethiopia. He has written a novel, Makeda, Queen of Sheba (currently, only in Swedish), which explores these facets of history and legend. His presentation was in English. (Note: Eric had much to do with the research and writing of this article).

Moses with the Tablets, Rembrandt (1606–1669)

Abraham, Moses, and The Covenant

Mr. Nilsson recounted the history of the Jewish people from earliest days, on to the times of their enslavement in Egypt, their escape under the leadership of Moses around 1200 BC, and then to his receiving from JAHWEH (God) the Ten Commandments inscribed on tablets. These writings were the laws which were to be followed by the Jews as their part of the covenant (contract) between God and the Jewish people. The Jewish people were to inherit the land God promised to Father Abraham, and now God had given them the Commandments which they must keep and observe as their part of the covenant. The tablets were the material reminder of the covenant.

For Jews, Abraham is, through Isaac and Jacob, the founding patriarch of the children of Israel. God promised Abraham: “I will make of you a great nation, and I will bless you”. With Abraham, God entered into “an everlasting covenant throughout the ages to be God to you and to your offspring to come.”  Abraham is primarily a revered ancestor or patriarch to whom God made several promises: chiefly, that he would have numberless descendants, who would receive the land of Canaan (the “Promised Land“). (Wikipedia)

Ultimately, the Jews of the next generation under Moses reached the land of Canaan and established what would become Israel under a succession of Hebrew kings, including Solomon who was King of the United Kingdom of Israel and Judah from 971 – 931 BC. The covenant was eventually placed in an Ark and secured in the Temple of Jerusalem, built by Solomon

The Queen of Sheba Visits King Solomon

Solomon and Sheba, from "The Gates of Paradise", the Baptistery, Florence, Italy. Lorenzo Ghiberti (1378 – 1455)

In 1770 AD, Scottish explorer James Bruce, while looking for the source of the Blue Nile, encountered the remnants of a large Jewish community in the mountain highlands around Lake Tana, in the northern province of Gondar in Ethiopia. He estimated this community then comprised about 100,000 persons. Their ancestors had been living there for centuries and called themselves Beta Israel – the House of Israel. One half million Jewish settlers were estimated to have lived in the area at one time, but time and circumstance had diminished their numbers.

Bruce described the peoples of Ethiopia as shepherds, warlike, of great size, prodigious strength, hunting lions, elephants, rhinos and other monstrous animals for food. They were rich in gold and silver, but had no grain or bread. The Jews of Ethiopia followed the Torah. Their neighbors called them Falashas – alien ones, the invaders – even after hundreds of years of coexistence and intermarriage, and with the same physical characteristics as the majority of people in Ethiopia.

Bruce elicited from the Falashas the legendary history of how their Jewish ancestors came to be in Ethiopia. I offer here a brief summary of the rich story told to James Bruce, recounted to us by Mr. Nilsson, and which can be more fully seen under several of the links in this article (all major sources will be offered in the endnotes).

The Queen of the land of Sheba (much larger than now encompassed by the borders of Ethiopia) had heard, possibly from Jewish travelers and traders from across the Red Sea on the Arabian Peninsula, of the great ruler of Israel, King Solomon. She wanted to learn from him about how to be a good ruler of her people and to establish trade relations, among other things. She traveled in a great caravan to Israel and brought Solomon gifts from her country. She stayed around six months and, according to legend, cohabited with Solomon only once, shortly before her return home.

From this brief union a son was born: Menelik. When he was 20 years old, he traveled to Israel at his mother’s pleasure, in order to present himself to his father, Solomon. The great king accepted Menelik as his own and gave him a charge: to transport the Ark and its Covenant to Sheba for safekeeping, as his country was under great threat at the time, and he was growing old and weary. (There are other accounts which are quite different, but this is the account presented by Bengt Nilsson and which is supported by the tradition of the Ethiopian Jews).

Menelik returned to rule Ethiopia, having taken the name “Menilek I”, accompanied by the eldest sons of the nobles of Israel. The Ethiopians believe that these elder sons who accompanied their prince brought from Jerusalem the original Ark of the Covenant, and this treasure is symbolized by a square oblong box kept in every Ethiopian Orthodox (Christian) church. (Source: Chris Prouty Rosenfeld)

The Growth and Decline of the Jewish People in Ethiopia

The Jewish Agency for Israel

Over the centuries, the descendants of Menilek and the Jews who accompanied him from Israel, the Beta Israel, came to number many tens of thousands and to have ruled their own community for significant periods. The Beta Israel enjoyed relative independence through the Middle Ages, but the fortunes of the Jewish community in Ethiopia were affected by events both within and outside the region over the course of centuries. Christianity spread throughout the Axum dynasty in the 4th century AD. By the 7th century Islam was spreading from the north. There was intermittent fighting with other tribes and the Beta Israel lost their autonomy after a battle in 1624 described in one account as an attempt to eradicate forever the Judaic memory of Ethiopia. Survivors were enslaved and forbidden to own land.

Despite persecution and discrimination, the Jews remained in Ethiopia. The situation for the Beta Israel worsened when the Mengistu dictatorship took over after Haile Selassie’s regime collapsed in 1973. In connection with Mengistu’s coup many Jews were killed and many more made homeless. In 1980 Ethiopia banned the practice of Judaism and teaching of Hebrew, while members of the Beta Israel were harassed and imprisoned. (Source: Jewish Virtual Library).

Aliyah (Repatriation) and Acceptance into Israel on “Humanitarian Grounds”

The Beta Israel

In 1973 the Israeli Ministry of Absorption prepared a report on the Beta Israel ethnic group which stated that the Falasha were foreign in all aspects to the Jewish nation. The report concluded that there was no need to take action in order to help the ethnic group make Aliyah to Israel. Shortly after the publication of this report, Rabbi Ovadia Yosef, the Sephardi chief rabbi, decreed that the Beta Israel are a descendant tribe of Israel and that giving them a proper Jewish education and the right to immigrate to Israel was a Mitzvah. Subsequently, Israel officially applied the Law of Return (Aliyah) to the Beta Israel community.

In the absence of full diplomatic relations with Ethiopia, The Israeli Mossad contacted officials in Sudan. Thousands of Beta Israel community from Ethiopia traveled by foot to the border with Sudan, and waited there in temporary camps until they were flown to Israel. Between the years 1977 and 1984, these immigrants were led from the camps to Israel by means of vessels of the Israeli Sea Corps, and by air. About 8,000 made a dangerous journey to Israel during which about 4,000 Beta Israel perished from disease or hunger or were killed by bandits. After it became clear that the immigrants who remained in the Sudanese camps were in danger, it was decided to pursue an operation of intense immigration, nicknamed “Operation Moses“, during which Israeli aircraft brought about 8,000 more immigrants to Israel.

Entire families undertook long and dangerous treks, which often spanned whole months. As a result of the difficult journey and bad conditions, hundreds, possibly thousands, of Beta Israel Ethiopians died on the way to the Sudanese camps. The operation ended prematurely, after a press leak in Israel regarding Ethiopian Aliyah via Sudan to Israel. After the media exposure to the operation, the Sudanese government was dismissed, and relations between Israel and Sudan were soured.

Despite this, more Beta Israel were brought to Israel, including 1,200 in the Operation Sheba and 800 more on Operation Joshua that took place in 1985, with the help of George H. W. Bush, who was then Vice President of the United States. (Source: Jewish Virtual Library)

Gondar Beta Israel Synagogue (roxanan.com)

The Falasha Mura

Missionary activity intensified at the end of the 19th century and large numbers of the Beta Israel community converted. These people who had once been Jews, or whose ancestors had been Jews, are referred to as the Falash Mura. The Falash Mura did not refer to themselves as Beta Israel until after the latter had begun to immigrate to Israel.

The Falash Mura were virtually unknown until Operation Solomon, when a number attempted to board the Israeli planes and were turned away. The Falash Mura said they were entitled to immigrate because they were Jews by ancestry, but the Israelis initially saw them as non-Jews, since most had never practiced Judaism and were not considered by the Beta Israel as part of their community.

Activists maintained that the Falash Mura had been forced to convert or had done so for pragmatic reasons without ever really abandoning their Jewish faith. The North American Conference on Ethiopian Jewry (NACOEJ) provided aid to the group in Addis Ababa, the capital city, who had not returned to their homes after being left behind during Operation Solomon. Once food and medical care became available, more Falash Mura left their villages for Addis Ababa, and soon began to overload the meager resources of NACOEJ.

In 1997, the government agreed to a one-time humanitarian gesture to bring to Israel everyone in Addis Ababa with some connection to the “seed of Israel.” Afterward, the camps were to be closed and future immigration was to be based on the criteria used for immigration from all other countries. Israel brought the 4,000 Falash Mura then in Addis Ababa to Israel in groups rather than all at once. This stimulated more Falash Mura to come to Addis Ababa in expectation of similar treatment. After an initial estimate of fewer than 10,000 Falash Mura, the number soon increased to more than 30,000.

In early 2001, nearly 20,000 Falash Mura remained in camps in Gondar and Addis Ababa. The Falash Mura received additional support in 2002 when Rabbi Ovadiah Yosef declared that the Falash Mura had converted out of fear and persecution and therefore should be considered Jews.

In January 2005, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon declared that all of the Falash Mura from Ethiopia would be brought to Israel by the end of 2007.  But Israel realized that it could not bring in thousands of Ethiopians without the cooperation of the government of Ethiopia. In November 2005, Ethiopia and Israel signed an understanding to double the rate of Ethiopian immigration to Israel from 300 to 600 (per month). In 2007, an estimated 3,000 Falash Mura lived in Addis Ababa and another 12,000 in Gondar City. Altogether, approximately 18,000 Falash Mura were believed to still be in Ethiopia.

The last official airlift of Ethiopian Jews landed in Tel Aviv on 5 August 2008, bringing to an end Israel’s 30-year effort to bring all of the Jews to Israel. A month later, the Israeli Cabinet agreed to allow additional Ethiopians petition for aliyah. Some activists maintain that still more Jews remain in Ethiopia, but the government said it had brought the entire community to Israel, a total of roughly 120,000 people.

Still, more Falash Mura remained in Ethiopia after the “final” airlift. Several thousand were in a Gondar transit camp as of the end of 2009. In early January 2010, Israel began to accept small numbers out of Ethiopia again. The Israeli government said it would now accept approximately 3,000 Falash Mura.

Some Demographics of Modern Israel, from The World Factbook of the CIA

Where is Ark of the Covenant?

Mr. Nilsson did not state categorically that the Covenant, and the Ark containing it, were in Ethiopia, but no one can say categorically that it isn’t. Mr. Nilsson prefers to believe the account of the Ethiopian Jews; that is, the Ark was first ensconced on the island of of Tana Kirkos in Lake Tana, where it remained for over 800 years. When the Axumite kingdom converted to Christianity after 331 AD, the Ark of the Covenant was co-opted by the Christian hierarchy and brought from Tana Kirkos to the newly constructed church of St. Mary of Zion in Axum, where it remains under the guardianship of the church. (Source).

Many of the references listed in the endnotes will point to, or state, different accounts. You are invited to explore these.

Today: The Third Temple?

According to orthodox Jewish people and Hebrew Bible, the First Temple was constructed by Solomon, the then King. This was also known as Solomon’s Temple and it dates back to the 10th century B.C. This Temple was the centre of orthodox Jewish belief and ancient Judaism. The Temple stood for around 400 years until Nebuchadnezzar and the Babylonians destroyed it in 586 BC.

There was a Second Jewish Temple built over the first one. Construction started in 537 BC and was completed in 516 BC. This Temple too was destroyed, by the Romans. In 19 BC, King Herod started the renovation with a vision of a grander Temple. However as soon as the complex was complete it was razed to the grounds by the Romans. After the destruction of the Second Temple, all Jews have included a prayer for the construction of the Third Jewish Temple in their daily prayers. (Source).

Plans for building the Third Temple in Jerusalem are under this link.

In that the first temple was built to house and protect the Ark of the Covenant, a question can be raised as to what Orthodox and other Jews will do to deal with this. There are some who claim that the Ark is buried under the ruins of the Second Temple:

The Ark of the Covenant is under the Temple Mount, in the Holy of Holies, awaiting its imminent placement in the Third Temple foretold by the Prophets and destined to become a House of Prayer for All Peoples. (Source).

The Covenant is hidden by the Ark not only for the safety of the tablets, but also for the safety of any on-looker:

The holiness of the Ark also made it dangerous to those who came in contact with it. When Nadav and Avihu, the sons of Aaron, brought a foreign flame to offer a sacrifice in the Tabernacle, they were devoured by a fire that emanated “from the Lord” (Lev. 10:2). During the saga of the capture of the Ark by the Philistines, numerous people, including some who merely looked at the Ark, were killed by its power. Similarly, the Priests who served in the Tabernacle and Temple were told that viewing the Ark at an improper time would result in immediate death (Num. 4:20). (Source).

Ark Carried on Poles by Egyptians in Procession. bible-history.com

Whatever its powers were when it could be identified as to place and time, the powers of The Covenant are visible today in the great interest it, and its Ark, elicit in historians, archaeologists, religions “of the book”, and in writers such as Mr. Bengt Nilsson who introduced the subject to me and Eric Gandy.

Now you have been affected, in some way, by the reading of this narrative.

Major sources used in this article:

Dictionary of African Christian Biography, Chris Prouty Rosenfeld

History of the Ethiopian Empire from Menekuk I, in 960 BC, to the Present

Is the Ark of the Covenant at Aksum?, by Roderick Grierson in The Wonders of the African World, PBS.org

Sacred Sites of Ethiopia and the Ark of the Covenant

The Book of James Bruce, Selected Pages

The Kebra Nagast, by E.A. Wallis Budge

The Lost Ark of the Covenant

The Queen of Sheba and Her Only Son, Menyelek (Kĕbra Nagast), Translated by Sir E.A. Wallis Budge

The Quest for the Ark of the Covenant, by Stuart Munro-Hay: The True story of the Tablets of Moses

Travels to Discover the Source of the Nile, In the Years 1768, 1769, 1770, 1771, 1772 and 1773

Other Sources:

The genome-wide structure of the Jewish people

Jewish ethnic divisions


The Outlook is Grim for the People of Afghanistan

December 9, 2011

On what authority do I state this? I have one specific source and one general source.

The specific source is a day-long seminar held December 1 at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs (UI) on the campus of The Royal Institute of Technology entitled Afghanistan After 2014, which I attended.

The general source is the recent and current news of the world which has focused, again, more sharply on Afghanistan because of The announcement by President Obama that the US and NATO military forces will exit Afghanistan by the end of 2014; and, the convening of the Second Bonn Conference on Afghanistan held on 5 December 2011, ten years after the First Bonn Conference. In addition, there have been violent episodes within and without Afghanistan (in Pakistan near its border with Afghanistan), even as I compose this article, that bode ill for a strong and peaceful Afghanistan while the foreign troops leave over the next two years.

I have a small authority having worked for thirty days in 2005 as a volunteer consultant in Afghanistan, in the provinces of Kunduz and Wardak. You can see images and some narrative from this visit here.

I will offer links to current news and other sources of information after I present this summary of the seminar.

Seminar Summary, Four Sessions
(Note: remarks attributed to the participants are transcriptions from my hand-written notes; any errors of fact and interpretation are mine).

Twelve experts and scholars provided a comprehensive look at the history, current issues and possible outcomes for Afghanistan and the region around it. I will identify the participants during the course of this article. The sponsoring agencies for the seminar were:

FOI (Swedish Defence Research Agency)
SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute)
UI (Swedish Institute of International Affairs)

First Session: Reconciliation and Peace—a Possibility?

Masood Aziz, former Afghan Diplomat in Washington, D.C. began the formal presentations.

Ten years have passed since the first Bonn Conference in 2001. The news is generally bad in evaluating these years in Afghanistan. There has been some progress, but the outlook is bleak. Mr. Aziz is pessimistic because the Afghan government is weak, corruption is rampant, and the international community is losing interest.

There is a state of crisis, currently. The Afghan government may collapse after NATO/ISAF troops leave by the end of 2014. The Current USA conversation with the Taliban is going nowhere. NATO lacks a credible plan for transition for after 2014.

With a weak central government, and its possible collapse, the strongest remaining institution will be the Afghan army. (Here Mr. Aziz was not explicit, but it was clear that the prospect of a military dictatorship, or of the military playing a dominant role such as in Pakistan, was on his mind).

Counter-insurgency has been the main purpose of NATO and ISAF (International Security Assistance Force of NATO), not nation-building.

What to do?

Generally:

  • Redouble efforts to support and establish the legitimacy of the national government in the eyes of the Afghan people. If this confidence cannot be engendered, then collapse of the government is inevitable, with attendant violence between ethnicities and factions.
  • Need to buttress the rule of law, versus the rule of men.
  • Afghan security forces need to be at the service of the state.

From Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com)

Specifically:

Development of Afghanistan’s mineral resources may be the game changer, e.g., the Chinese-run copper mine and the Indian-run iron ore mine. However, the danger of the “resource curse” may be a down-side. A major portion of the state income from the development of natural resources should be directed as cash transfers to the people, as is done in other resource-rich countries such as Mexico, Brazil, South Africa, Bolivia and Mongolia.

Mr. Aziz ended his prepared remarks thus:

The last ten years of NATO operations in Afghanistan have focused on strategic issues, mostly security. Since 2001 there has been a massive inflow of unconditional money from governments and NGOs causing the state to be dependent on these gifts. This is state-building from the outside, not from the inside and from the ground up via the people. Much of this money and other resources have flowed to former warlords.

Cash grants to the people from the income of natural resource development will force the government to rely on the people through the taxation of their income. This will also give new life and purpose to the National Solidarity Program and strengthen the governments and capabilities of the 34 provinces. Local communities will be empowered to take care of their own security and infrastructure projects. Not all security and infrastructure development need be performed by the national government.

Eva Johansson is head of the Afghanistan Section at the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (SIDA). Here are some of her points.

Children are the most often forgotten in the issues addressed. Additionally, SIDA is interested in helping women to participate in the formation of the country. Sweden, through SIDA, has increased its support of these issues to become the second largest donor. The emphasis on security and counter-insurgency has put the issues of women and children in lower priority, despite efforts of SIDA and UNICEF. SIDA continues to be concerned about the condition of women’s rights in Afghanistan.

In the Bazaar, Kunduz, June 2005

Peter Brune, Secretary General of the Swedish Committee for Afghanistan (SCA/SAK). The Swedish Committee has 6300 people in 12 of the 34 provinces. SCA/SAK have been on the ground in Afghanistan since 1982, providing education and other developmental services to people in the villages (not in the capital, Kabul).

In responding to Mr. Aziz’s comments Mr. Brune said it was a “tough call” to say we’ve failed. Mr. Brune introduced the discussion point that ten years is not enough time. This point was taken up and further developed by other speakers who followed.

Mr. Brune made these other points:

  • There needs to be a link between development and education.
  • It’s important not to be “diplomatic” in assessing and addressing the problems. We need to examine and learn from failures.
  • The state hasn’t failed yet. Girls are going to school; the army is being built, etc.
  • Others should do more of what the Swedish Committee is doing. [Link to a Power Point Presentation showing some of what the Swedish Committee for Afghanistan is doing]
  • SCA/SAK has zero tolerance for weapons in schools. It’s important to separate the military from education and other efforts at the grass roots.
  • We (NATO/ISAF, the Afghan government) are scrambling to build an army. Meanwhile the Afghan and Pakistan armies are facing each other on their common border.
  • There will be consequences in building a strong army in a weak state (thus buttressing Mr. Aziz’s argument).
  • What are the other institutions we can look to? The constitution, the executive and the parliament, none of which existed before the current government was established. [Note: he didn’t mention the judiciary, which is generally seen as corrupt and ineffective at the state level, although not necessarily at the local level).
  • Important people and entities are not talking with each other. For example, the Supreme Commander of NATO forces and SIDA have never met.
  • Real security is to strengthen the state.

Second Session: Reconciliation and Peace—a Possibility?

Robert Lamb is Director and Senior Fellow at Program on Crisis, Conflict and Cooperation at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Washington D.C.

There have been talks about peace talks, but no peace talks. After the Taliban fell many soldiers and commanders went home without veterans’ benefits. Foes of the Taliban included the Northern Alliance, led primarily by warlords, some of whom are still in place.

In the 2001 Bonn Conference the Taliban were excluded and, since they had no part in the deliberations they have no stake in peace. Therefore, they went to Pakistan and became “insurgents”. The talks about peace talks continue, to date. Pakistan now demands to be part of the conversation.

Bad things began happening in 2010. An imposter apparently representing the Taliban conned the government of Afghanistan out of a lot of money, and created extreme embarrassment for all connected parties. In September of this year the chairman of the Afghan High Peace Council, Burhanuddin Rabbani, was been killed by a suicide attacker. He was meeting members of the Taliban at the time in an effort to negotiate toward peace talks.

It’s not clear what we can do to prevent civil war in Afghanistan. Former warlords, some of whom are now regional governors, are hoarding money and weapons.

We need to prevent the collapse of the Afghan state. (Non-military) development is important, “big time”, but will do no good if the government collapses. We need to keep the potential combatants (in a civil war) co-opted in the Afghan Government. This means tolerating “some very bad guys”.

thoseheadcoverings. blogspot.com

Helene Lackenbauer is an FOI analyst and former political aide to the Swedish Force Commander in Afghanistan.

There are very few possibilities leading toward peace. Who are the actors and what do we provide them? What are our prices for peace? Are we prepared to sell out women’s rights? What do we intend for the Taliban?

Mr. Brune responded: Afghanistan is at war. There are police, weapons, explosives and insurgents. The Taliban is not defined in any way. There can’t be a universal strategy; we have to address each group’s needs and grievances. Peace can be based on justice; all their rights have to be recognized and supported (implying the need for a strong and professional, not corrupt, national judiciary).

Robert Lamb “lifts the gloom”

  • Eleven years ago Afghanistan was a medieval theocracy. How long does it take to for such a state to become a representative democracy?
  • There is a civil service, although it is constantly raided for employees to the better paid NGOs and other private organizations.
  • Free speech exists, even if it may be dangerous.
  • There are radios and telephones.
  • Most areas are less violent than Northern Mexico.
  • Ten years is nothing in the history of nation building. Transitioning from Warlord rule to the rule of law doesn’t happen quickly or easily. Afghanistan is still in the warlord phase and will be for a long time.
  • Seventy-five percent of Afghans think the government is doing a good job, although the jirgas have more effect at the local level. If the state isn’t there, they figure things out (at the local level).

[Here I am not sure whether Robert Lamb continues, or whether Peter Brune and perhaps others are responding]

    • The Swedish Committee for Afghanistan has one-half million girls in school.
    • Students have TV and radios.
    • Rural areas are more negative on the future and are concerned about the return of the warlords.
    • Afghanistan is ethnically divided and is waiting for the next war. If the Taliban returns, they will bring Taliban rules. (Taliban are fundamentalist Sunni Muslims mostly from the Pashtun tribe).

(Note: Languages are Dari (official) 50%, Pashto (official) 35%, Turkic languages 11%, 30 minor languages (primarily Balochi and Pashai) 4%;  Ethnic groups are Pashtun 42%, Tajik 27%, Hazara 9%, Uzbek 9%, Aimak 4%, Turkmen 3%, Baloch 2%, other 4%. Religions are Sunni Muslim 80%, Shia Muslim 19%, other 1%.
[Source].

  • (Upon the likely collapse of the national government) a new Northern Alliance will emerge to oppose the Taliban.
  • The concerns of the people are: civil war, political collapse, financial crisis, jobs disappearing. The current president Hamid Karzai will not be running to succeed himself in the next election—who will rule? If the election collapses, who will emerge, and how?
  • Governors are more powerful than the national government in the eyes of the people. When the Soviets left there was chaos. Will there be the same again? After the Soviets left it was worse than with the Soviets.
  • People in Kabul are more positive. Children are always more positive (Note: the median age is 18 years: source).

Ann Wilkens, former Swedish ambassador to Pakistan and former Chairman of the Swedish Committee for Afghanistan, emphasized the point that there is not a unified Taliban group in Afghanistan. There are splinter groups, some interested in insurgency, some in drug traffic and some with other aims, for instance relating to religious practice.

Masood Aziz augmented this observation by noting there is a spectrum of different groups and there is a problem in assessing the association of any of them with Al Qaeda, which is of non-afghan origin led by non-Afghans. In addition, Mullah Mohammed Omar, the past and present leader of the Afghan Taliban, has been hiding out in Pakistan, even when he was head of state during the time when the Taliban ruled Afghanistan.

Middle East expert at UI Magnus Norell raised the question of the current objective of the Taliban. He suggested they want influence in the current processes addressing the future of Afghanistan. Ann Wilkens asserted that the institution of Sharia law is their objective. Norell said that these were not mutually exclusive.

Masood Aziz said this is not a valid question because there is no unified Taliban. He further noted that strict Sharia law alienated Afghans during their Taliban rule. Afghans felt an alien force took over their state. Mullah Omar, who has no stated or known religious education or lineage, alienated Afghan tribal leaders during his rule.

Kabul, June 2005

Third Session: Counter-insurgency

Context:

  • “All the bad stuff” is located in Pakistan: the Quetta Shura Taliban and the Haqqani Network, for instance.
  • The tribal and other leaders in Afghanistan have a common enemy in the various Taliban entities, but have no common strategy.
  • The stated US objective is to disrupt and destroy Al Qaeda. Is it working, or should the US change its objective? President Obama has shifted the focus to counter-insurgency.

Stefan Olsson of the FOI stated the problem with counter-insurgency is that it will take ten years to wipe out the insurgents. There is too little time for this (by the end of 2014) and it won’t work.

Harsh Pant of King’s College, London, said the current tension between the US and Pakistan over insurgents in Pakistan will come to a head as a result of a vicious cycle.

Masood Aziz said that the US military has ever-changing nomenclature for what it is they are doing. “Stability” is now in vogue. Previously it was “Clear/Hold/Build/Transfer”. Before that it was “Fight/Talk/Build”.

Military officers are talking to village elders about democracy; they aren’t experts in this. The US military is trying to embed itself in the culture and change it from the inside. It won’t work.

Stefan Olsson said “counter-insurgency is not nation-building”.

We have to realize our limitations in using only the military to bring “stability”.

Question posed to the panel: Will Afghan security forces be able to fill the vacuum left by the NATO/ISAF departure?

One response: The Afghan people would like the troops to leave, but “not too quickly”.

Stefan Olsson: The Swedish government doesn’t know what the end state should be, or when.  The USA seems to want to fight the insurgents to the negotiating table.

In the Afghan security forces the Army officers are from the former Northern Alliance; that is, they are not of the Pashtun tribe as is the majority of the government officers. The Army may not feel itself subservient to a weak national government.

Other responses:

In that the USA/NATO have announced a time certain by which their troops will leave, the Taliban is in a position to wait to intensify their incursions.

The USA needs to stay after 2014, in some fashion, to deal with other countries such as Iran and Pakistan.

Neither the USA nor NATO has a strategy for filling the vacuum created by their departure.

Question from the audience: Can and will India be a force for good in Afghanistan?

Masood Aziz: Pakistan seems to want the opposite of what everybody else wants in Afghanistan. India, which is right next door, is the world’s largest democracy. In contrast, the military dominates Pakistan, but is not all-powerful because of the influence of organized groups such as the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) which wants to oust the US-backed Pakistani government.

In response to another question regarding the possible role of the EU, Mr. Masood said that the EU has the talent and moral foundation to help build infrastructure for Afghanistan. As an example of “moral force” he recited a story of how a US Peace Corps volunteer in the 1960s left an indelible impression on a now elderly man in a remote village.

Chief Engineer, local construction engineer, and driver -- employees of the Swedish Committee for Afghanistan, 2005

Fourth and Final Session: Geopolitics and the Regional Dynamics

Context: There has been a change in the global balance of power from West to East, in operational terms. The center of world politics has been Europe, but now is moving toward Asia/China.

Harsh Pant of King’s College, London opened the session.

American priorities are changing: Afghanistan is not as important as before, as China emerges as a priority.

Global priorities are going to be influenced/centered in Asia/Pacific.

Pakistan now realizes that it is not the most important ally the USA has in its region. The USA sees India as its most important ally vis-à-vis China, and Islamabad (Pakistan’s capital) is worried. Pakistan has to hedge its bets; it needs a friendly Kabul (Capital of Afghanistan) so as not to be flanked by enemies—India to the east and Afghanistan to the west.

Pakistan’s self-identity seems to have been that it is not India. The Pakistan military has never won a war, but the Pakistan army points the people of Pakistan to India for its raison d’être as an army. Pakistan has tried to marginalize India in insisting they not be included in Afghan talks. Washington finally realized that Pakistan was playing a double game.

India realized this marginalization and now has decided to invest in Afghanistan (refer to the previously mentioned iron ore mine in Hajigak). Additionally, India has been reaching toward Russia and Iran, both of which flank Afghanistan. India likes a western presence in Afghanistan, but Russia and Iran don’t—but India balances this somehow.

China is feeling encircled by the USA. They are reluctant to talk with the USA about Afghanistan and Pakistan. They don’t want to compromise their relationship with Pakistan.

Current events reveal a conflict between the USA and Pakistan, a symptom of the underlying problem of Pakistan’s feeling of isolation and loss of importance to the USA.

Neil J. Melvin, Director of the Armed Conflict and Conflict Management Programme at SIPRI, responded:

The USA is drawing closer to its Asia/pacific allies and courting new ones such as Burma. Therefore, Afghanistan will remain important to the USA in this context, but where does Afghanistan fit? We don’t know yet.

Russia is courting Afghanistan by encouraging it toward the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. (The six-nation SCO comprises China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. India, Iran, Mongolia and Pakistan attend its meetings as observers. Source).

Harsh Pant added that Pakistan’s uncertainty about the USA’s intentions makes it difficult for them to know how to act.

Former Swedish Ambassador to Pakistan Ann Wilkens stated that the sequencing of events is unfortunate for Pakistan. There are conflicting messages to and from all players in the region. What does the USA want? She noted that the Pakistan army was built by the USA.

Magnus Norell:  A report of the US Marines recommended forgetting nation building and to leave just a small counter-terrorism force in Afghanistan. It should be treated by the USA as a “marginal country”. We’re reading too much importance into it. You can’t solve Afghanistan unless you deal successfully with Pakistan. Let’s not look at Afghanistan as a regional issue. Keep it local.

From the moderator: From the perspective of Iran and Pakistan (which have long borders with Afghanistan) why is everyone waiting to see what the USA is going to do?  The USA doesn’t have the leverage for a regional solution.

Neil J. Melvin: it is a dilemma. Russia, Iran and others want the USA out, but no-one else has the strength to do anything constructive on a regional basis. Iran has around three million Afghan refugees and doesn’t like the Taliban. There needs to be trust building between nations in the region. China is interested in stability and doesn’t want attacks from terrorists, so it keeps a low profile. One of China’s important interests in stability is due to the question of whether to build an additional gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to China through Afghanistan.

From the moderator: the world economy affects Afghanistan, Iran, and Pakistan and things are looking austere for these countries. How does this factor into the regional issues?

Answer from panel: if the world and local economy were better, it still wouldn’t solve Afghanistan’s problem which is one of governance.

Last question form the moderator: What should we do? What should we focus on?

Reponses from the panel:

  • The West should continue to support Afghanistan economically.
  • Donor nations need more humility in their approach to Afghanistan.
  • Get out and stay out, militarily.
  • Spend aid on education, etc.
  • Don’t pull out (the military) gradually.

The moderators were:

Nathalie Besèr is Advisor to the Swedish Institute of International Affairs (UI)

John Rydqvist is Head of the Asia Security Studies Program at FOI.

END OF CONFERENCE


Links to information sources:

NATO in Afghanistan
Terrorism and Insurgency
Al‐Qaeda and Afghanistan in Strategic Context: Counterinsurgency versus Counterterrorism
The Quetta Shura Taliban (QST) and the Haqqani network pose the greatest threat to stability in Afghanistan
Quetta Shura Taliban
Haqqani Network
Mullah Mohammed Omar
Lashkar-e-Jhangvi
Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP)
Purdah
The pragmatic fanaticism of al Qaeda: an anatomy of extremism in Middle Eastern politics.
NATO/ISAF history and facts about its troops

Links to recent and current news affecting Afghanistan and the region

Afghan National Army prepares for life after NATO
‘West must see Afghan job through’, military chief says
Pakistani Taliban splintering into factions
Afghan Peace Effort Hits Wall
Attacks Point to New Afghan Conflict: Bombings of Shiite Worshippers in Two Cities Kill More Than 60 and Introduce Sectarian Strife Absent for a Decade
Kabul Promises Change, Gets Vow of Lasting Aid
A Counterinsurgency Success in Kandahar
Afghan opium production to expand after troops exit
Hornets’ nest: Why Pakistan may be America’s most dangerous ally
Pakistan Was Consulted Before Fatal Hit, U.S. Says; Deadly Border Strike Came After Forces Were Told Area Was Clear of Pakistani Troops, Officials Say
There Are No Moderate Taliban; the people of Afghanistan understand that accommodating the Taliban will result in fear and chaos.
India Wins Bid for ‘Jewel’ of Afghan Ore Deposits


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